Sports Trading Card Price Tracker We talk a lot about price movement of single cards and sports trading card boxes on The Sports Card Show Podcast. Each month we'll pick some hot items in the sports card world and monitor the price action over the month. Sometimes we make prediction on if the price is going to go up or down.
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The San Francisco Bay Area, and Northern California in general, is a part of the world that can embrace athletes the rest of the sporting world has written off. Some examples in the past might be the Raiders team and made it to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and other "older" players. Barry Bonds was hated and often booed across the entire country, but still draws cheers from fans to this day in San Francisco. Vlade Divac was re-born in Sacramento, Aubrey Huff and Cody Ross are superstars.
2005 Playoff Contenders Alex Smith Rookie Autograph #/401

That being said, the fans around here can go from being "some of the best in the league" to booing & trashing the players on talk-radio ... especially when you don't win.

You could throw Alex Smith, quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, and former #1 pick in 2005, into the list of players fans were booing for most of his career. The 49ers themselves have tried to replace Alex Smith several times, they even drafted young quarterback Colin Kaepernick in 2011. Not to mention during the current off-season, after Alex Smith finally has a great season, (which led the 49ers all the way to the NFC championship game) the 49ers were rumored as one of the teams trying to sign Peyton Manning. Coach Jim Harbaugh downplayed the issue after Manning signed with Denver, but one thing is for certain, Alex Smith's career has been a wild ride!

Speaking of wild rides, you can bet with the ups/downs Alex Smith has experienced in the past year - one of his best rookie cards has been going up/down right with him. Smith has tons of rookie cards, but I found some really nice data on his 2005 Playoff Contenders RC #106 - which has a stated print run of 401 copies. This time last year (July 2011) collectors weren't paying much attention to Alex Smith, and most San Francisco 49ers fans had given up on the 7 year pro. Being the #1 pick, Even as the 49ers were winning games, the lack of big numbers from Smith kept most collectors away.

Then this little thing called the NFL Playoffs started

The rise in this price graph is not nearly as impressive as the data actually is if you include all the Buy-It-Now cards that were sold. Many eBay sellers were moving these during the December - January months as the 49ers marched through the playoffs for Buy-it-Now prices similar to the ones you see in the month of January. This data below only includes auctions with multiple bids ... so the volume of cards sold during the NFL Playoff months was much greater.
2005 Playoff Contenders Alex Smith RC Price Graph

This graph shows how quickly your cards can go up in the NFL if your team starts winning games. This graph also shows how important it is to remember as collectors - you can always wait until the hype wears off to buy the cards at a lower price. Even if the 49ers had went on to win the Super Bowl, his cards would have certainly cooled off a bit during the off-season. Buying cards during the heat of the playoff run is always exciting .... but being able to sell the card for that price ($200) is going to be difficult now unless Alex Smith can win a Super Bowl.

Buying in at today's price of $75 - $80 really can't get you hurt too bad considering the same card was selling for $25 - $40 when everyone thought he sucked. Additionally, if you are a collector who never really sells your cards, you can see selling this card during the hype would have been a great idea because you could have bought one back later at a much lower price. You'll want to keep this in mind as we are on the cusp of the 2012 NFL season

Here Is The Raw eBay Data

7/10/2011 --  $37.00
7/21/2011 --  $35.35
8/9/2011 --  $35.00
8/29/2011 --  $24.50
9/3/2011 --  $27.00
9/19/2011 --  $27.00
10/2/2011 --  $39.99
10/11/2011 --  $51.48
10/18/2011 --  $69.74
10/19/2011 --  $61.00
10/30/2011 --  $78.00
10/31/2011 --  $63.69
11/6/2011 --  $90.00
11/7/2011 --  $76.01
11/19/2011 --  $72.00
11/20/2011 --  $79.00
11/21/2011 --  $69.01
12/4/2011 --  $68.00
12/7/2011 --  $65.96
12/7/2011 --  $70.00
12/10/2011 --  $76.75
12/18/2011 --  $58.00
1/14/2012 --  $69.95
1/15/2012 --  $89.88
1/15/2012 --  $131.32
1/15/2012 --  $202.50
1/17/2012 --  $147.50
1/19/2012 --  $122.57
1/21/2012 --  $125.73
1/23/2012 --  $76.00
1/24/2012 --  $85.77
1/30/2012 --  $82.13
3/15/2012 --  $86.00
3/27/2012 --  $89.00
4/9/2012 --  $112.50
7/1/2012 --  $72.67

Current Contenders Cards on eBay
{module 532}
Who's The Next "Alex Smith???"
2010 Topps Chrome Sam Bradford RC Card 2010 Press Pass Colt McCoy Card Kevin Kolb Bowman RC Card
Can Sam Bradford Bounce Back? Is Colt McCoy Done? Is Kevin Kolb The Real Deal?

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{module 60}

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2010 Topps Chrome Stephen Strasburg Blue Refractor Autograph Card

I first became aware of Stephen Strasburg when my brother told me about him in 2009 - while he was still in college at San Diego State. I even mentioned him on the podcast on March 19, 2009 ... so other collectors hopefully benefited from that bit of wisdom. About a year later, one of his cards would sell for $16,403 and he had the baseball card world on fire for a while. It all seemed too good to be true, and once he blew out his arm ... many thought it was.

Not everyone bailed on his rookie cards though, but it certainly put a damper on his prices for a while. I could do a Google search for how many players have come back from Tommy John surgery ... some have had more than one. It now looks as if you can add Stephen Strasburg to the list of players that have come back from that surgery, as his play during the early part of 2012 has been sensational.

I wanted to take a look back at what collectors were paying for one of his major autograph cards from his rookie season. I chose the 2010 Topps Chrome Blue Refractor Autograph Card #212 serial numbered to just 199 copies. What I've found is not a very impressive rise, but a graph that looks as if collectors are still leery of his injury. With an average price of around $200.00 dollars for the last 12 months ... it's not like this card ever was cheap to begin with - but only recent sales have really broken well above that trend recently.

Speaking of one sale that broke through the trend - a recent auction on eBay this month closed at $311.00 dollars. I thought that was just a wacky price ... but the buyer left feedback, and I believe the buyer felt the card was in Mint+ condition, so it's possible it was worth the premium over other recently sold cards.

All these data points are from completed eBay auctions (with multiple bids in most cases)
2010 Topps Chrome Blue Refractor Stephen Strasburg Price Graph

While there have been some big spikes in prices, the long-term trend has been pretty steady for this card the past year. Collectors/Fans expect greatness from Strasburg, so I guess that's another reason why we haven't seen a big jump in prices during his excellent first half of 2012. If I was a buyer of this card ... I'd try to land one in nice condition for under $200 dollars. If I was a seller, I'd probably put a Buy-It-Now in the $275 dollar range and hope it sells to the right collector. In the short term, I expect this card to continue to trade in the $200+ range - with upside into the $300's because the Nationals are a hot young team & if Strasburg pitches this well all season, he will be a Cy Young candidate.

Only time will tell if Strasburg's arm will hold up over the course of a career. One thing is certain now though, the value of his 2010 Topps Chrome Blue Refractor Auto sure has held up pretty well the last year - and if his arm holds up ... the price might start climbing higher.

Here Is The Raw eBay Data

7/3/2011 --- $180.59
9/7/2011 --- $202.25
9/11/2011 --- $202.35
9/18/2011 --- $187.50
9/24/2011 --- $202.50
9/28/2011 --- $174.51
10/15/2011 --- $152.87
11/18/2011 --- $165.00
12/13/2011 --- $182.50
1/15/2012 --- $177.50
3/11/2012 --- $202.50
3/18/2012 --- $179.50
3/20/2012 --- $232.50
3/21/2012 --- $227.50
4/1/2012 --- $160.51
4/8/2012 --- $175.01
4/29/2012 --- $222.00
5/5/2012 --- $200.00
5/13/2012 --- $207.50
5/27/2012 --- $168.50
5/30/2012 --- $180.00
6/3/2012 --- $227.00
6/3/2012 --- $182.50
6/17/2012 --- $265.00
6/20/2012 --- $311.00
6/30/2012 --- $202.52

Blue Refractor Cards Currently On eBay
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2012 Topps Museum Collection

- Top 20 Most Expensive Cards Sold On eBay -
(Through June 22 -- Auctions Only)

Checkmark 2012 Topps Museum Collection Baseball Checklist

2012 Topps Museum Collection Yu Darvish Gold Auto Redemption Card

#1  

Player: Yu Darvish (Redemption)

Set: Archival Autograph Gold Parallel

Card #: #AA-YU

Serial: #/5

eBay Seller: go-bassn

Date: May 4, 2012

Sold: $1,150 (15 Bids)

 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Willie Mays & Hank Aaron Dual Autograph Redemption

#2  

Players: Hank Aaron & Willie Mays
(Redemption)

Set: Archival Dual Autograph

Card #: #DAA-MAA

 

 

eBay Seller: hotcorner2980

Date: April 29, 2012

Sold: $868.58 (23 Bids)

 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Yu Garvish Archival Autograph Redemption Card

#3  

Player: Yu Darvish (Redemption)

Set: Archival Autograph

Card #: #AA-YU

Serial: #/25

eBay Seller: wiltiger7

Date: April 27, 2012

Sold: $775.99
- Another One Sold 5/3 For $510

 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Ken Griffey Jr Signature Swatch Triple Relic Auto Redemption

#4  

Player: Ken Griffey Jr.
(Redemption)

Set: Signature Swatch
Triple Patch Relic Auto

 

eBay Seller: bugsybear12

Date: April 29, 2012

Sold: $535.99 (18 Bids)
 

 
2012 Topps Museum Collection Derek Jeter Momentous Material Patch Card #5  

Player: Derek Jeter

Set: Momentous Material

 

Serial: #5/5

eBay Seller: x2r0110249

Date: May 7, 2012

Sold: $526.76 (16 Bids)
- The same card sold the week before for $510 and was re-listed
 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Archival Autograph Sandy Koufax Card #/25

#6  

Player: Sandy Koufax

Set: Archival Autograph

Card #: #AA-SK

Serial: #15/25

eBay Seller: waxliquidators

Date: April 26, 2012

Sold: $504.32 (31 Bids)
- Another One Sold 6/4 For $373.96
 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Hank Aaron Silver Border Autograph

#7  

Player: Hank Aaron

Set: Silver Border Auto

 

Serial: #8/10

eBay Seller: bbcardstor

Date: May 6, 2012

Sold: $388.88 (23 Bids)
- Another One Sold 6/2 For $300
 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Cal Ripken Jr. Silver Border Autograph Card

#8  

Player: Cal Ripken Jr.

Set: Silver Border Auto

 

Serial: #4/10

eBay Seller: chcy899

Date: June 7, 2012

Sold: $380.55 (22 Bids)
 

 
2012 Topps Museum Collection Gary Carter Momentous Jersey Patch Autograph #9  

Player: Gary Carter

Set: Momentous Material Auto

 

Serial: #9/10

eBay Seller: littletrain

Date: May 2, 2012

Sold: $355.00 (18 Bids)
 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Prince Fielder MLB Logo Patch Card

#10  

Player: Prince Fielder

Set: MLB Logo Patch

 

Serial: #1/1

eBay Seller: jmp4582

Date: May 6, 2012

Sold: $355.00 (11 Bids)
 

 

2012 Topps Museum Collection Roy Halladay MLB Logo Patch Card

#11  

Player: Roy Halladay

Set: MLB Logo Patch

 

Serial: #1/1

eBay Seller: arteepower

Date: May 27, 2012

Sold: $354.00 (25 Bids)
 

 

#12
Player: Derek Jeter - Don Mattingly
Set: Momentous Material Dual Jumbo Relic Book
2012 Topps Museum Collection Don Mattingly - Derek Jeter Dual Jumbo Material Book Card


Serial: #4/5

eBay Seller: jdreyes83

Date: May 3, 2012

Sold: $331.25
(19 Bids)
 

 
2012 Topps Museum Collection Ken Griffey Jr. Autograph #13 #14

Player: Ken Griffey Jr.

Set: Framed Auto

Serial: #13/15

eBay Seller: eeidlitz

Date: May 24, 2012

Sold: $315.00 (23 Bids)

2012 Topps Museum Collection Adrew McCutchen Autograph Patch Card
2012 Topps Museum Collection Albert Pujols Autograph #3/5

#15

Player: Albert Pujols

Set: Autograph

Serial: #3/5

eBay Seller: dolphinfanatic3939

Date: June 16, 2012

Sold: $305.00 (35 Bids)

Player: Andrew McCutchen

Set: Patch Autograph

Serial: #3/10

eBay Seller: goinggolfingchris1

Date: May 1, 2012

Sold: $314.99 (20 Bids)

2012 Topps Museum Felix Hernandez Autograph Patch

#16

Player: Felix Hernandez

Set: Patch Autograph

Serial: #3/10

eBay Seller: melb475

Date: May 17, 2012

Sold: $299.00 (16 Bids)

2012 Topps Museum Collection Clayton Kershaw Autograph Patch Card

#17

Player: Clayton Kershaw

Set: Patch Autograph

Serial: #2/10

eBay Seller: waxliquidators

Date: April 28, 2012

Sold: $299.00 (16 Bids)

2012 Topps Museum Collection Aroldis Chapman Autograph Patch Card

#18

Player: Aroldis Chapman

Set: Patch Autograph

Serial: #2/10

eBay Seller: playiruiuc

Date: May 15, 2012

Sold: $260.19 (31 Bids)

2012 Topps Museum Collection Justin Upton Jersey Patch Autograph

#19

Player: Justin Upton

Set: Patch Autograph

Serial: #1/10

eBay Seller: waxliquidators

Date: May 7, 2012

Sold: $260.00 (19 Bids)

2012 Topps Museum Collection Willie Mays Autograph

#20

Player: Willie Mays

Set: Gold Framed Auto

Serial: #/15?

eBay Seller: chris1776hunting

Date: June 10, 2012

Sold: $257.01 (20 Bids)
- The seller noted "
this is an error card of a HOFer!!!! Missing the gold embossed number on the front. Supposed to be numbered out of 15"
 

 

With a name like Museum Collection, there better be some big hits inside - and this set certainly has them. Interesting to note that the top 4 auctions were redemption cards. Out of all these cards, one of my favorite is #5 - the Derek Jeter card with the Majestic jersey tag, that card is really nice. Looks like the seller sold it once, but then had to re-list it - which ended up working out for him because it sold for more the second time around.

A few of the cards sold the very first couple of weeks of the sets release for a good amount over what any other card sold for after that. Sometimes those early release sales are risky though, you could not get paid and by the time you can re-list your auction, 2 or 3 could have sold. Either way, if you can get your hands on the hot new product & the hot cards inside, it pays to sell that very first couple of weeks.

 
Checkmark 2012 Topps Museum Collection Baseball Checklist  
Checkmark2013 Topps Museum Collection Baseball Checklist  

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