I first became aware of Stephen Strasburg when my brother told me about him in 2009 – while he was still in college at San Diego State. I even mentioned him on the podcast on March 19, 2009 … so other collectors hopefully benefited from that bit of wisdom. About a year later, one of his cards would sell for $16,403 and he had the baseball card world on fire for a while. It all seemed too good to be true, and once he blew out his arm … many thought it was.
Not everyone bailed on his rookie cards though, but it certainly put a damper on his prices for a while. I could do a Google search for how many players have come back from Tommy John surgery … some have had more than one. It now looks as if you can add Stephen Strasburg to the list of players that have come back from that surgery, as his play during the early part of 2012 has been sensational.
I wanted to take a look back at what collectors were paying for one of his major autograph cards from his rookie season. I chose the 2010 Topps Chrome Blue Refractor Autograph Card #212 serial numbered to just 199 copies. What I’ve found is not a very impressive rise, but a graph that looks as if collectors are still leery of his injury. With an average price of around $200.00 dollars for the last 12 months … it’s not like this card ever was cheap to begin with – but only recent sales have really broken well above that trend recently.
Speaking of one sale that broke through the trend – a recent auction on eBay this month closed at $311.00 dollars. I thought that was just a wacky price … but the buyer left feedback, and I believe the buyer felt the card was in Mint+ condition, so it’s possible it was worth the premium over other recently sold cards.
All these data points are from completed eBay auctions (with multiple bids in most cases)
While there have been some big spikes in prices, the long-term trend has been pretty steady for this card the past year. Collectors/Fans expect greatness from Strasburg, so I guess that’s another reason why we haven’t seen a big jump in prices during his excellent first half of 2012. If I was a buyer of this card … I’d try to land one in nice condition for under $200 dollars. If I was a seller, I’d probably put a Buy-It-Now in the $275 dollar range and hope it sells to the right collector. In the short term, I expect this card to continue to trade in the $200+ range – with upside into the $300’s because the Nationals are a hot young team & if Strasburg pitches this well all season, he will be a Cy Young candidate.
Only time will tell if Strasburg’s arm will hold up over the course of a career. One thing is certain now though, the value of his 2010 Topps Chrome Blue Refractor Auto sure has held up pretty well the last year – and if his arm holds up … the price might start climbing higher.
Here Is The Raw eBay Data
7/3/2011 — $180.59
9/7/2011 — $202.25
9/11/2011 — $202.35
9/18/2011 — $187.50
9/24/2011 — $202.50
9/28/2011 — $174.51
10/15/2011 — $152.87
11/18/2011 — $165.00
12/13/2011 — $182.50
1/15/2012 — $177.50
3/11/2012 — $202.50
3/18/2012 — $179.50
3/20/2012 — $232.50
3/21/2012 — $227.50
4/1/2012 — $160.51
4/8/2012 — $175.01
4/29/2012 — $222.00
5/5/2012 — $200.00
5/13/2012 — $207.50
5/27/2012 — $168.50
5/30/2012 — $180.00
6/3/2012 — $227.00
6/3/2012 — $182.50
6/17/2012 — $265.00
6/20/2012 — $311.00
6/30/2012 — $202.52
Blue Refractor Cards Currently On eBay
