Social media is buzzing that sports card group breaker Backyard Breaks is getting loaded cases.
Backyard Breaks, based out of Florida, rose to cardboard fame or infamy when a giveaway involving a rare Trevor Lawrence rookie card went awry.
> Backyard Breaks Kaboom Scandal
The company was able to plow through any negative backlash and are one of the largest breakers on the internet. Backyard Breaks includes over a half dozen males who stream for several hours at a time on Twitch.
Conversation about loaded boxes sparked when 'The Collectibles Guru' tweeted some big hits Backyard Breaks has pulled this year.
Backyard Breaks recently added this to their background of a break. A lot of breakers could learn from their marketing skills.
MAJOR UPDATE
— The Collectibles Guru
UPDATE
There is something incredibly fishy going on with @backyardbreaks_ pulling multiple product hits out of @PaniniAmerica’s top products.
The statistical improbabilities are absurd.
Here’s a deep-dive on all the data.
It’s a must read.pic.twitter.com/OwgYHrHI9v
(@ericwhiteback) October 14, 2022
This thread is wild.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) October 14, 2022
There is some major explaining to do. https://t.co/gBoqo91faD
Sports Card Radio has obtained statistical analysis that show this is nearly impossible. Are the case breaks at Backyard Breaks rigged? Who could be rigging them? Why?
- VIEW DATA -
Data CONCLUSION
The approximate odds for each individual pull were as follows:
>LeBron Triple Logoman = 3.090% (3,090 in 100,000 odds)
>Trevor Lawrence Gold Vinyl = 0.667% (667 in 100,000 odds)
>Cade Cunningham Black = 0.909% (909 in 100,000 odds)
A breaker like Layton or Backyard pulling all three would be a 1:550,000 shot.
8 Hour Live Stream!
INVESTIGATION DAY 1
October 11, 2022
The Tweet
Backyard Breaks has now hit all 4 of the following product hits…is there something sketchy going on here?
— The Collectibles Guru
100 RT’s and I’ll dig into thispic.twitter.com/RbssJPxtwh
Backyard Breaks responded to The Collectibles Guru tweet by implying they pull valuable cards based on the volume of cases they open.
Group breakers who open the most product are likely to pull some of the best cards in any particular product.
The Volume Theory
Fellow sports card group breaker Real Breaks also backed up the theory that Backyard Breaks does not get loaded cases.
Panini does not directly sell to group breakers who do not have a physical store front.
Backyard Breaks has to acquire products from various sports card distributors, such as GTS, Southern Hobby and Peach State Sports.
Breaker Defends Backyard
Discussion
His breakdown concluded that the odds to hit these cards would be harder than winning the lottery.
Further breakdown is needed to account for the volume of cases Backyard Breaks opens. We look forward to seeing more breakdowns like the one Sports Card Psychology did.
Sports Card Dad puts on a literal tin foil hat to discuss the matter in a recent video.
INVESTIGATION DAY 2
October 12, 2022
We await more data and information from the people working on those details.
Sports Card Radio has invited Backyard Breaks onto our YouTube channel to talk about the allegations.
Sports Card Radio has lined up some group breakers to come on and talk about the theory of loaded cases.
Any math experts slide into my dm's. You are needed.
Group breaker Cblez with a good breakdown of the situation from a breaker perspective.
Key points:
> Many of the big hits Backyard Breaks have pulled were well after the product had come out (LeBron Triple Logoman)
> The Cade Cunningham 1/1 was pulled out of 1st Off The Line & not regular Prizm hobby.
Backyard Breaks apparently "called their shot" on the Cade Cunningham Logoman 1/1. Predicting they would pull the card before the box was opened.
This could fuel the fire that they know they are getting loaded cases and even know what is inside.
Discussion
INVESTIGATION DAY 3
October 13, 2022
Sports Card Radio has obtained statistical analysis that show this is nearly impossible. Are the case breaks at Backyard Breaks rigged? Who could be rigging them? Why?
- VIEW DATA -
Data CONCLUSION
The approximate odds for each individual pull were as follows:
>LeBron Triple Logoman = 3.090% (3,090 in 100,000 odds)
>Trevor Lawrence Gold Vinyl = 0.667% (667 in 100,000 odds)
>Cade Cunningham Black = 0.909% (909 in 100,000 odds)
A breaker like Layton or Backyard pulling all three would be around a 1:550,000 shot.
Sports Card Psychology came back and broke down the odds based on the volume Layton Sports Cards has done with the same products.
AIH Sports gives an overview of the current active situation. Is there hanky panky involved?
Join us Friday where AIH Sports will be one of our call in guests and we see what he thinks about this developing situation!!
INVESTIGATION DAY 4
October 14, 2022
We did an 8 hour live stream.
Meanwhile, the likes of Layton Sports Cards, Cblez and CardPorn rush to defend Backyard Breaks and Panini but provide no math of their own.
INVESTIGATION DAY 5
October 15, 2022
Here are some reaction videos to our live stream:
HALF SHIRTS FOR LIFE!!!!